I am perusing the web right now, and stumbled upon an article written in 1997 entitled, “When will computer hardware match the human brain?”
According to its Abstract: “This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. Based on extrapolation of past trends and on examination of technologies under development, it is predicted that the required hardware will be available in cheap machines in the 2020s.”
Hmmmm…
“If 100 million MIPS could do the job of the human brain’s 100 billion neurons, then one neuron is worth about 1/1,000 MIPS, i.e., 1,000 instructions per second. That’s probably not enough to simulate an actual neuron, which can produce 1,000 finely timed pulses per second. Our estimate is for very efficient programs that imitate the aggregate function of thousand-neuron assemblies. Almost all nervous systems contain subassemblies that big.”
A bit crazy when you take into account their research they did, and the illustrations and charts – interesting ‘study’ I must say – just something I wanted to tack in here for safe-keeping…
The article is available via this website :
http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm